BJP Considers Changes in UP: Potential Drop of One-Quarter of 62 MPs in 2024 Elections
Several factors such as age, anti-incumbency, utilization of MPLADS funds, and involvement in party initiatives will play a role in the selection process for BJP. The majority of the individuals on the provisional list are from eastern and western regions of Uttar Pradesh, with some of them being Union ministers
Due to factors such as opposition unity, the need to accommodate allies, and anti-incumbency against certain leaders, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh is contemplating the possibility of not offering tickets to around 25% of its current Members of Parliament (MPs) in the state for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections next year.
Sources within the BJP have indicated that these MPs, which may include some Union ministers and predominantly represent western and eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh, could be replaced by leaders who are already associated with the party. This potential reshuffle of candidates is also being considered by the BJP in other states.
In simpler terms, the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is facing challenges such as opposition unity, the need to accommodate allies, and public dissatisfaction with certain incumbent MPs. As a result, the party is contemplating the idea of not fielding around 25% of its current MPs, including some Union ministers, in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Instead, they are considering replacing them with leaders from within the party. Similar considerations are being made by the BJP in other states as well.
According to sources, the BJP is considering dropping certain leaders from the list of candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections based on various factors. These factors include leaders who have surpassed the unofficial age limit of 75, those who have failed to establish a strong rapport with the public and party workers, and those who have been ineffective in their constituencies. Additionally, some MPs who defeated prominent opposition candidates in the 2019 elections but have subsequently faced controversy and lack popularity among voters may also be at risk of being replaced.
In simpler terms, the BJP is contemplating not fielding certain leaders in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections for reasons such as surpassing the unofficial age limit, failure to connect with the public and party workers, and ineffectiveness in their respective constituencies. This includes MPs who previously defeated notable opposition candidates but have faced controversies and lack popularity among voters.
According to reports, a list of MPs who may be dropped from the candidate selection process has already been prepared. This list will be shared with the Central leadership of the BJP when the time comes for finalizing the candidates for the Lok Sabha elections. In addition to this, there is also a separate list of sitting Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) and ministers in the Yogi Adityanath government who are being considered for Lok Sabha tickets. The aim of including these individuals is to maintain social balancing within the party’s candidate selection process.
In simpler terms, a list of MPs who may be excluded from the candidate selection process has been prepared and will be shared with the Central leadership. Additionally, there is a separate list of sitting MLAs and ministers who may be considered for Lok Sabha tickets. This is being done to ensure social balance within the party’s candidate selection.
According to a senior BJP leader, there is a possibility that some MPs who are currently serving as part of the Union Cabinet and may not receive Lok Sabha tickets could be offered Rajya Sabha seats in the future.
In simpler terms, the senior BJP leader suggested that if certain MPs from the Union Cabinet are not selected as candidates for the Lok Sabha elections, they might be considered for Rajya Sabha seats at a later time.
There are currently 11 BJP MPs from Uttar Pradesh who are part of the Union Council of Ministers. These MPs and their respective constituencies are as follows:
1. Rajnath Singh – Lucknow
2. Smriti Irani – Amethi
3. Mahendra Nath Pandey – Chandauli
4. General (retd) V K Singh – Ghaziabad
5. Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti – Fatehpur
6. Sanjeev Kumar Baliyan – Muzaffarnagar
7. Pankaj Chaudhary – Maharajganj
8. S P Singh Baghel – Agra
9. Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma – Jalaun
10. Kaushal Kishore – Mohanlalganj
11. Ajay Kumar Mishra ‘Teni’ – Kheri
These MPs hold important positions in the Union Cabinet and represent various constituencies in Uttar Pradesh.
The selection of new candidates will involve considering local social factors as well as the candidates put forward by opposition parties. The performance of the current MPs is being evaluated by gathering feedback, including input from booth-level workers. This assessment includes their level of participation in party programs, with a particular focus on the Maha Jansampark Abhiyan. This ongoing initiative involves BJP leaders reaching out to the people and discussing various schemes implemented by the Modi government.
In simpler terms, the selection process for new candidates will take into account local social dynamics and the competition from opposition parties. The performance of current MPs is being evaluated based on feedback, including input from booth-level workers. The extent of their involvement in party programs, particularly the Maha Jansampark Abhiyan aimed at promoting government schemes, is being considered during this assessment.
According to a BJP leader, there has been thorough monitoring of the performance of each MP. This assessment includes analyzing the utilization of their Member of Parliament Local Area Development (MPLAD) funds and examining the specific areas in which the funds were allocated. There are reports indicating that some MPs have not shown much enthusiasm or participation in the party’s efforts to reach out to voters. It is also noted that the crowd attendance at their rallies has been relatively low.
In simpler terms, BJP leaders have closely scrutinized the performance of each MP, including their utilization of MPLAD funds. There are concerns regarding the lack of interest shown by some MPs in the party’s voter outreach activities, as reflected in poor attendance at their rallies.
The BJP leader further emphasized that the party does not view favorably the confidence expressed by some MPs in winning solely based on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The party is not willing to take any chances and, therefore, intends to field fresh faces in order to counter the anti-incumbency factor and instill new hope among voters.
The final decision regarding candidate selection will be made by the Central leadership of the BJP. This decision will take into consideration the findings of survey agencies. These surveys will provide insights into the BJP’s position in relation to opposition parties on the ground, the prevailing political and other issues in each constituency, and the image of the local MP as well as potential replacement candidates.
In essence, the BJP is not inclined to rely solely on Prime Minister Modi’s popularity for electoral success. Fresh faces will be chosen as candidates to overcome anti-incumbency sentiments and offer a fresh perspective to voters. The final decision will be made by the Central leadership, considering survey findings that assess the BJP’s position, local issues, and the image of MPs and potential replacements in respective constituencies.
Uttar Pradesh (UP) holds significant importance in the Lok Sabha elections as it has the highest number of seats (80) among all states in the country. In the 2019 elections, the BJP emerged as the dominant party in the state, securing 62 seats, while its ally Apna Dal (S) won an additional two seats. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) formed an alliance and won 10 and five seats, respectively. The Congress managed to secure only the Rae Bareli seat, from where Sonia Gandhi contested, while Rahul Gandhi lost in Amethi to the BJP’s Smriti Irani.
In preparation for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is expected to form an alliance with the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party led by Om Prakash Rajbhar. The BJP is likely to allocate at least one seat to this alliance. Additionally, the party is considering granting seats to its existing ally, the Nishad Party.
In summary, Uttar Pradesh plays a crucial role in the Lok Sabha elections due to its significant number of seats. The BJP had a strong performance in the state in the previous elections, and it is now exploring alliances with regional parties to expand its support base and secure seats in the upcoming polls.
According to a BJP leader, there is a possibility of forming an alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) led by Jayant Chowdhury, particularly for western Uttar Pradesh (UP). In such a scenario, the BJP may consider replacing Jat MPs in certain seats with non-Jat candidates. The strategy behind this move is to ensure that the non-Jat candidate brings votes from their own caste, while the alliance with the RLD attracts Jat support.
In summary, the BJP is not ruling out the possibility of an alliance with the RLD in western UP. To maximize their electoral prospects, the party might consider fielding non-Jat candidates in seats currently held by Jat MPs, with the aim of attracting additional caste-based support while also benefiting from the Jat support garnered through the RLD alliance.